18116 Captive Lake Rd

Vineland, MN 56450

$174,500C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · Built 1989 · Townhouse · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,633/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $178/mo
• Annual: $2,133/yr
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (6.4% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $163k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#693 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Onamia Public School District (rural): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #289 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Mille Lacs County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mille Lacs County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $174k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.