18116 Captive Lake Rd · Vineland, MN 56450

$174,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 2,657 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and enjoy this well-maintained twin home that overlooks the 10th hole of Northwood Hills golf course. This unit includes two bedrooms, and one bath. Newly updated throughout the entire home this open concept unit includes everything you need. This property is turn key ready to live in or rent out. Check out today.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Turn key ready
• Overlooks 10th hole

Tags

• OVERLOOKS 10TH HOLE
• OPEN CONCEPT
• TURN KEY READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Greenview Townhome Association with $75 monthly fee (includes lawn care, grounds maintenance, snow removal, water)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Shared water system and well; City sewer connection; Electric and natural gas available
• Home design: Attached residential property; One story; Above-grade living area 905
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Lot approximately 0.061 acres (28x30)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (13x10)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level (12x11; 11x11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units; Other heating type
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.3% in Vineland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#693 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Onamia Public School District (rural): math 16% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #289 of 301 in MN (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Mille Lacs County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Mille Lacs County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $174k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $163,340 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $45,275
• Equity at exit: $92,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $130,221
• Equity at exit: $153,991

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56450

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $174,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $227	+0% $178	+5% $128	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $113	+0% $178	+5% $242	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $222	base $178	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,500 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 320-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $174,500 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $598 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,276 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$678/yr (+$57/mo · 113.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable loss: −$757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onamia Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725050
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,743
• Composite: 17.73/100
• National rank: #9020
• State rank: #289 of 301 in MN

Livability — Vineland

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #693
• US rank: #16675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 969

Population outlook (Mille Lacs County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,811 people
• By 2030: 23,960 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 21,835 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 19,376 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 14,838 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 11,957 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 12% Two or more races 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mille Lacs

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 28.9% · R 69.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.8 2016: R+35.8 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 203.4801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+118.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $174,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listed $180,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-26 Sold (MLS) $85,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-29 Price Changed $85,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-26 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $15,605 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-13 Listed $9,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $598 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.