2141 Willow Crossing Pkwy #263

Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$194,995D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $88/mo
• Annual: $1,060/yr
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.94%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $54,599

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.