2141 Willow Crossing Pkwy #263 · Fort Lupton, CO 80621

$194,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,447 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this stunning new 2 bed, 2 bath home designed with comfort and style in mind! The spacious kitchen features a large island perfect for cooking, dining, and entertaining, while both bedrooms offer generous walk-in closets for plenty of storage. The luxurious primary en-suite bathroom includes extra storage space and a relaxing bench for a spa-like feel. Enjoy outdoor living on the back deck and take advantage of the convenient storage shed for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. This beautiful home combines modern features with cozy living in every detail! Apply today while this home is available!

Key facts

• Sliding glass door
• Back deck
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• BACK DECK
• GENEROUSLY SIZED GUEST BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Fort Lupton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#130 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, commute F.
• Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8 (town): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #74 of 86 in CO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,764 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.94%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-25,942
• Equity at exit: $29,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,231
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80621

• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $194,995

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,749
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Whitetail Ave Fort Lupton, CO	2.0–4.0	2.0	1296	$1,499	$1.16	4d	1	0.09mi
2155 Alyssa St Fort Lupton, CO	3.0	2.5	1870	$2,845	$1.52	4d	1	0.26mi
711 N Denver Ave Unit C Fort Lupton, CO	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,995 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,995 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,995 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,995 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,995 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,995 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,995 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,995 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,995 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,995 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,995 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,995 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,995 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,995 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $194,995 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Welcome home to this stunning new 2 bed, 2 bath home designed with comfort and style in mind! The spacious kitchen features a large island perfect for cooking, dining, and entertaining, while both bedrooms offer generous walk-in closets for plenty of storage. The luxurious primary en-suite bathroom includes extra storage space and a relaxing bench for a spa-like feel. Enjoy outdoor living on the back deck and take advantage of the convenient storage shed for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. This beautiful home combines modern features with cozy living in every detail! Apply today while this home is available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $1,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious kitchen, two well-maintained bathrooms, and a neat exterior. Upgrades in paint, landscaping, and modern fixtures would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly boost appeal and value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and technology appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly boost appeal and value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and technology appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County Reorganized School District No. Re-8
• NCES district ID: 0804020
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,116
• Composite: 18.48/100
• National rank: #8921
• State rank: #74 of 86 in CO

Livability — Fort Lupton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #11069

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Lupton, CO
• City population: 14,542
• Population (ZIP): 14,542

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.37%
• Current HPI: 285.9162
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $194,995 Zillow