1283 Ellis Hollow Rd

Varna, NY 14850

$570,000B

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,713 sqft · Built 1985 · MultiFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax + insurance: −$968
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,890
• Net cashflow: $3,153/mo
• Annual: $37,842/yr
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.71%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $159,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $570k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $788/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $570k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $553k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 293 students, 32% FRL); Dewitt Middle School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 478 students, 38% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $570k implies a 409% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $160k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $9,001/mo this rent would consume 151% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.