1283 Ellis Hollow Rd · Varna, NY 14850

$570,000

16 bd · 16.0 ba · 2,713 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1985 1.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Here's a solid investment opportunity in the heart of Ellis Hollow, just minutes from Cornell's Vet School! First time on the market since 1998, this is a side-by-side 4-unit rental property that is fully rented through July 31, 2026 earning $64,800 annual gross income! Attractive log design with covered front porch with ample parking for tenants and guests. Each unit is rented for $1,350 + utilities (all separate) and are in great condition overall. Main level spaces in each unit include a living room open to kitchen and full bath with tub/showers. Upstairs there is 1 bedroom plus a large office room/sitting room. Outside space for tenants in each unit too - concrete back patios with priva

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Ample parking
• Large office room

Tags

• 4 UNIT RENTAL PROPERTY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• AMPLE PARKING
• LIVING ROOM OPEN TO KITCHEN
• FULL BATH WITH TUB SHOWERS
• LARGE OFFICE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Each of four units currently rents for $1,350 (total rent per unit listed as $1,350)

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electric with circuit breakers; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Multi-family residential property; Two-story
• Construction: Frame, log, and wood siding construction; Block foundation; Asphalt, membrane, rubber, and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven / Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four 1-bedroom units (each unit includes a living room and porch)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (one per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Wall furnace and natural gas; Cooling: Other (has cooling)
• Interior features: Natural woodwork; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive. Per door: $788/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $570k).
• Recommended offer: $553k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caroline Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 293 students, 32% FRL); Dewitt Middle School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 478 students, 38% FRL); Ithaca Senior High School (math 95% / reading 95%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,341 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,001/mo this rent would consume 151% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 5169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $160k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($553k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $570k implies a 409% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $552,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.71%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $129,178
• Equity at exit: $84,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $459,953
• Equity at exit: $49,283

Cash invested: $159,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 21.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax from tax record: −$731 /mo · $8,768/yr
• Insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,890
• Net cashflow: $3,153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,009

Max offer price $570,000

Occupancy floor 60%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	4	4	$9,000
Total (4 units)			$9,001

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,500
• Closing costs: $17,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $570,000 Active
4. 2023-07-16
   historical
5. 1998-02-12
   soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,768 · $731/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,201 · $767/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $108,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,929
• − Property taxes: −$8,768
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,641
• − Management: −$8,641
• − Depreciation: −$16,582
• Taxable income: $30,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,344
• After-tax cash flow: $30,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Varna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+408.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — IBRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $570,000 IBRMLS
• 2023-07-16 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 1998-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,768 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.