612 Buffalo St

Manitowoc, WI 54220

$165,000C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Pending · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,534/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $112/mo
• Annual: $1,340/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#56 in WI, #1,555 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Manitowoc School District (town): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #304 of 342 in WI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 100 units permitted in Manitowoc County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manitowoc County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $165k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Manitowoc — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.