612 Buffalo St · Manitowoc, WI 54220

$165,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1898 5,662 sqft lot $99/sqft · 7% below area Est $189k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1898

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.6% in Manitowoc — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#56 in WI, #1,555 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Manitowoc School District (town): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #304 of 342 in WI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 100 units permitted in Manitowoc County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manitowoc County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $165k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,859
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Buffalo St	0.00mi	5/2.5	1,771 (+6%)	1mo	$140,000	$79	87
617 N 7th St	0.34mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,843 (+11%)	5mo	$189,000	$103	55
1207 Huron St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,684 (+1%)	9mo	$190,000	$113	52
631 N Water St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (+10%)	7mo	$266,000	$145	50
851 N 10th St	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,576 (-5%)	4mo	$162,500	$103	48
701 N 7th St	0.41mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,844 (+11%)	10mo	$182,500	$99	48
851 N 8th St	0.67mi	5/2.0	1,759 (+6%)	14mo	$130,000	$74	48
866 N 10th St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (+4%)	9mo	$233,000	$135	45
845 N 8th St	0.65mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (+8%)	7mo	$220,000	$122	43
827 N 10th St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-12%)	18mo	$195,000	$133	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-19,627
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,938
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54220

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $1,998/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-01-19
   price $165,000 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

2. 2025-12-30
   status Active 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

3. 2025-12-30
   historical Contingent 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

4. 2025-10-02
   price $175,000 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

5. 2025-08-20
   price $180,000 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

6. 2025-07-23
   listed $190,000 Active 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

7. 2025-07-03
   historical $190,000 211-char remark

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

8. 2025-07-03
   historical

   Show marketing remark (211 chars)

   Room to grow, work, and play -- this 5 bedroom 2-bath home offers flexible living, a manageable yard, and endless potential. Rare value for this much space -- bring your ideas and make it yours!Being sold as is!

9. 2025-07-02
   listed $190,000 Active
10. 2013-09-23
    listed $88,800
11. 2013-09-23
    historical
12. 2007-11-05
    soldstatus $78,000
13. 2007-11-02
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,998 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$527/yr (+$44/mo · 26.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,998
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manitowoc School District
• NCES district ID: 5508610
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,540
• Composite: 22.76/100
• National rank: #8029
• State rank: #304 of 342 in WI

Livability — Manitowoc

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manitowoc, WI
• County: Manitowoc County · 55,069 people
• City population: 40,949
• Metro: Manitowoc, WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,949
• Household income: $66,035
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Manitowoc County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,561 people
• By 2030: 74,096 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,752 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 60,731 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 48,723 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 39,250 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manitowoc

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.4) · D 37.6% · R 61.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: 7.5pp · 2024: -23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.4 2020: R+23.2 2016: R+21.7 2012: R+2.8 2008: D+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.08%
• Current HPI: 256.8561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Manitowoc, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+111.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $165,000 METROMLS
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — METROMLS
• 2025-12-30 Contingent — METROMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $175,000 METROMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $180,000 METROMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $190,000 METROMLS
• 2025-07-03 Coming Soon $190,000 METROMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $190,000 METROMLS
• 2013-09-23 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2013-09-23 Listed $88,800 METROMLS
• 2007-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-02 Sold (MLS) $78,000 METROMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,998 · -11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.