13257 Mary Ball Rd

Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$119,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $812/mo
• Annual: $9,741/yr
• Cap rate: 14.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.01%
• DSCR: 2.29
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Primary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 316 students, 127% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #328 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 237 students, 99% FRL); Lancaster High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 403 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 109% FRL vs 64% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $120k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.8% in Kilmarnock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.