13257 Mary Ball Rd · Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1960 0.52 ac lot $111/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 112 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $119,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$268,880) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.8% in Kilmarnock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Primary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #992 of 1,108 statewide, top 90%, 316 students, 127% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #328 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 237 students, 99% FRL); Lancaster High (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #305 of 319 statewide, top 97%, 403 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 109% FRL vs 64% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $120k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.01%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,880
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -55.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1965 Goodluck Rd	0.22mi	3/1.0	962 (-11%)	8mo	$105,000	$109	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $68,293
• Equity at exit: $56,230

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $167,981
• Equity at exit: $88,503

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22482

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $930

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $880	-5% $846	+0% $812	+5% $778	+10% $744
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $734	+0% $812	+5% $889	+10% $966
Rate	-1.0pp $872	-0.5pp $842	base $812	+0.5pp $781	+1.0pp $749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $119,900 Pending 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $119,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-04-29
   price $119,900 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

7. 2026-04-22
   price $129,900 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

8. 2026-04-09
   price $139,900 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

9. 2026-03-08
   price $147,900 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

10. 2026-02-11
    listed $154,990 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Reduced!! Tenant will vacate by July 1st! 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath investment property in Kilmarnock, VA. Strong rental potential with a functional layout and convenient location close to town amenities. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to add value. Roof was replaced in 2018!

11. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $8,256
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,981
• After-tax cash flow: $7,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,210
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #5680
• State rank: #125 of 131 in VA

Livability — Kilmarnock

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #17011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,171

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,870 people
• By 2030: 9,172 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 7,719 · -21.8%
• By 2050: 6,551 · -33.6%
• By 2075: 5,110 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 3,884 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.0) · D 46.1% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.0 2020: R+4.6 2016: R+10.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Current HPI: 232.4115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+207.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $119,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $129,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $139,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $147,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $154,990 CVRMLS
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $673 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.