Shepherd Plan

Nocatee, FL 32081

$577,900F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,395 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 486 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,361
• Tax + insurance: −$1,386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-3,100/mo
• Annual: $-37,203/yr
• Cap rate: 1.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.98%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $232,873

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $578k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (42.0% below list).
• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $335k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.