Shepherd Plan · Nocatee, FL 32081

$577,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 486 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenience and luxury inspire every lifestyle refinement of The Swindell floor plan by David Weekley Homes. A tasteful kitchen rests at the heart of this home, balancing impressive features with effortless style, all while maintaining an open design that flows throughout the main level. Your open floor plan presents a sunlit space ready to fulfill your lifestyle and décor dreams. Conversations with loved ones and quiet evenings to yourself are equally serene in the shade of your covered porch. Escape to the comfort of your Owner's Retreat, which includes a pamper-ready bathroom and a walk-in closet. Each secondary bedroom provides a uniquely appealing place to thrive and personalize. The upstairs retreat and downstairs study await your personal design touch. Let us Start Building your new home in Ponte Vedra, FL, while you plan your house-warming party.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PORCH
• PAMPER-READY BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPSTAIRS RETREAT
• DOWNSTAIRS STUDY

🏗️ New construction. The $577,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $831,688.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $578k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-37k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $383k (33.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $335k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.5% in Nocatee — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($509k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $335,107 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.98%
• DSCR: 0.29
• GRM: 20.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $831,688
• List price: $577,900
• Delta: -30.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Reflections Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,395 (0%)	1mo	$670,000	$280	84
321 Reflections Ave	0.30mi	4/3.5	2,396 (0%)	2mo	$710,000	$296	83
439 Reflections Ave	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,396 (0%)	3mo	$824,988	$344	78
385 Reflections Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+0%)	0mo	$670,000	$279	76
427 Reflections Ave	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,399 (+0%)	0mo	$699,787	$292	75
855 Caiden Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-0%)	0mo	$790,900	$331	70
345 Seamark Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+0%)	3mo	$679,900	$284	68
325 Seamark Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+0%)	2mo	$664,900	$277	67
944 Caiden Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,239 (-6%)	2mo	$629,000	$281	63
230 Seamark Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,322 (-3%)	2mo	$667,900	$288	61
388 Seamark Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,239 (-6%)	2mo	$650,000	$290	59
723 Caiden Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,751 (+15%)	1mo	$925,553	$336	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-246,855
• Equity at exit: $221,360

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-405,280
• Equity at exit: $250,504

Cash invested: $232,873 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,040 /mo · $12,475/yr
• Insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-3,100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,275

Max offer price $383,075

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,526	-5% $-2,813	+0% $-3,100	+5% $-3,388	+10% $-3,675
Rent	-10% $-3,365	-5% $-3,233	+0% $-3,100	+5% $-2,968	+10% $-2,836
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,681	-0.5pp $-2,889	base $-3,100	+0.5pp $-3,316	+1.0pp $-3,535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,922
• Closing costs: $24,951
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10260 Old Dixie Hwy Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,099	$1.24	4d	1	1.19mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	4d	46	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $577,900 Active 486 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $577,900 Active 483 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $577,900 Active 482 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $577,900 Active 481 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $577,900 Active 480 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $577,900 Active 478 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $577,900 Active 477 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $577,900 Active 474 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $577,900 Active 473 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $577,900 Active 472 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $577,900 Active 468 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $577,900 Active 467 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $577,900 Active 466 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $577,900 Active 465 DOM
15. 2025-02-20
    listed $577,900 Active 873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (873 chars)

    Convenience and luxury inspire every lifestyle refinement of The Swindell floor plan by David Weekley Homes. A tasteful kitchen rests at the heart of this home, balancing impressive features with effortless style, all while maintaining an open design that flows throughout the main level. Your open floor plan presents a sunlit space ready to fulfill your lifestyle and décor dreams. Conversations with loved ones and quiet evenings to yourself are equally serene in the shade of your covered porch. Escape to the comfort of your Owner's Retreat, which includes a pamper-ready bathroom and a walk-in closet. Each secondary bedroom provides a uniquely appealing place to thrive and personalize. The upstairs retreat and downstairs study await your personal design touch. Let us Start Building your new home in Ponte Vedra, FL, while you plan your house-warming party.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,587
• − Property taxes: −$12,475
• − Insurance: −$4,158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,217
• − Management: −$3,217
• − Depreciation: −$24,195
• Taxable loss: −$53,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-20 Listed $577,900 Zillow