514 Barnegat Ave

Toms River, NJ 08753

$775,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax + insurance: −$512
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-1,395/mo
• Annual: $-16,742/yr
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $217,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $775k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $529k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (48.0% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($752k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Street Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 314 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School South (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 1,048 students, 36% FRL); Toms River High School South (math 18% / reading 43%, grade F, #279 of 399 statewide, top 71%, 1,359 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 16 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $775k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,026/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 828% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.