514 Barnegat Ave · Toms River, NJ 08753

$775,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 9,147 sqft lot $323/sqft · 30% above area Est $597k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Quartz countertops
• Open floor plan

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• OVERSIZED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: New construction; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Stove; Stove hood
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Cement flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with 2 heat zones; Electric cooling with 2 AC zones
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Light fixtures; Screens; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Includes standard utility hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $775k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $529k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (48.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $403k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Street Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 314 students, 33% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School South (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 1,048 students, 36% FRL); Toms River High School South (math 18% / reading 43%, grade F, #279 of 399 statewide, top 71%, 1,359 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,026/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 828% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($752k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $775k implies a 319% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,631 (48.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $597,115
• List price: $775,000
• Delta: 29.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-220,890
• Equity at exit: $115,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-332,461
• Equity at exit: $67,008

Cash invested: $217,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08753

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,064
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,267/yr
• Insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-1,395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,792

Max offer price $528,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-956	-5% $-1,176	+0% $-1,395	+5% $-1,615	+10% $-1,834
Rent	-10% $-1,713	-5% $-1,554	+0% $-1,395	+5% $-1,236	+10% $-1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,005	-0.5pp $-1,198	base $-1,395	+0.5pp $-1,596	+1.0pp $-1,800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $193,750
• Closing costs: $23,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3126 Windsor Ave Toms River, NJ	4.0	3.0	1900	$4,750	$2.50	0d	1	0.94mi
30 Gladney Ave Toms River, NJ	4.0	2.5	3241	$3,900	$1.20	45d	1	1.08mi
536 River Dr Toms River, NJ	4.0	1.5	2074	$3,500	$1.69	45d	1	1.09mi
3306 Windsor Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	4.5	2623	$18,000	$6.86	45d	1	1.32mi
424 E Longport Ave Ocean Gate, NJ	3.0	2.5	1734	$3,750	$2.16	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $775,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $775,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $775,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $775,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $775,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $775,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $775,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $775,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $775,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $775,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $775,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $775,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $775,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $775,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $775,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $775,000 Active 784-char remark
17. 2024-12-24
    soldstatus $185,000
18. 2024-12-23
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

19. 2024-09-25
    status Pending 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

20. 2024-09-05
    listed $199,900 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

21. 2023-09-12
    soldstatus $145,000
22. 2023-09-07
    soldstatus $145,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

23. 2023-08-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

24. 2023-07-29
    listed $145,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Oversized lot close to the River in the Gilford Park section of Toms River. All utilities at the street and property is not in a flood zone.

25. 2022-08-27
    historical
26. 2022-02-26
    listed $150,000 Active
27. 2022-02-25
    historical
28. 2021-08-24
    historical
29. 2021-08-24
    listed $150,000 Active
30. 2021-07-29
    price $150,000
31. 2021-04-23
    price $127,000
32. 2021-02-23
    listed $130,000 Active
33. 2019-01-16
    historical
34. 2018-07-16
    listed $115,000 Active
35. 2018-05-20
    historical
36. 2017-11-19
    historical
37. 2017-11-19
    listed $129,900 Active
38. 2017-05-18
    listed $129,900 Active
39. 2015-12-05
    historical
40. 2015-06-01
    listed $149,000 Active
41. 2013-03-04
    listed $149,000
42. 2012-08-25
    listed $149,000
43. 2012-02-26
    listed $149,000
44. 2011-03-30
    listed $155,000
45. 2009-08-03
    listed $159,000
46. 2008-09-30
    listed $159,900
47. 2004-09-23
    soldstatus $120,000
48. 1971-08-02
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,267 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,782 · $899/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,515/yr (+$710/mo · 375.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,412
• − Property taxes: −$2,267
• − Insurance: −$3,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,865
• − Management: −$3,865
• − Depreciation: −$22,545
• Taxable loss: −$31,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,563
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 65,448
• Household income: $105,224
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 828.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -527.36%
• Current HPI: 374.5075
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+5861.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $775,000 MOMLS
• 2024-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-23 Sold (MLS) $185,000 MOMLS
• 2024-09-25 Pending — MOMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $199,900 MOMLS
• 2023-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-07 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MOMLS
• 2023-08-04 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-07-29 Listed $145,000 MOMLS
• 2022-08-27 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-02-26 Listed $150,000 MOMLS
• 2022-02-25 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2021-08-24 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2021-08-24 Listed $150,000 MOMLS
• 2021-07-29 Price Changed $150,000 MOMLS
• 2021-04-23 Price Changed $127,000 MOMLS
• 2021-02-23 Listed $130,000 MOMLS
• 2019-01-16 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $115,000 MOMLS
• 2018-05-20 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-11-19 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2017-11-19 Listed $129,900 MOMLS
• 2017-05-18 Listed $129,900 MOMLS
• 2015-12-05 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2013-03-04 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2012-08-25 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2012-02-26 Listed $149,000 MOMLS
• 2011-03-30 Listed $155,000 MOMLS
• 2009-08-03 Listed $159,000 MOMLS
• 2008-09-30 Listed $159,900 MOMLS
• 2004-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1971-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,267 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.