None bd · None ba ·
— sqft ·
Built 1924
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,977/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,573
Tax + insurance
−$500
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$835
Net cashflow
$1,069/mo
Annual
$12,831/yr
Cap rate
10.57%
Cash-on-cash
15.28%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.33%
Cash to close
$83,972
Investor read
This is a multifamily listed at $300k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $295k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Central High School (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,901 students, 92% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,977/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 541% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior walls
— Cracked and peeling
Major: interior walls
— Peeling and uneven
Major: roof
— No photos of roof
Major: flooring
— No photos of flooring
Major: interior walls/paint
— Peeling and uneven
Major: systems
— No photos of systems
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q9TCG0CF243R7X
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29