6321 Aragon Way #206

Villas, FL 33966

$157,500D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 956 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$306
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-725/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $44,100

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $158k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (6.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#94 in FL, #1,462 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 181 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12757% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $158k implies a 350% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.3% in Villas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?