6300 Hill Rd

Fillmore, NY 14735

$150,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,188/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,181/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.81%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#868 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Fillmore Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #359 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $150k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.