1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
448 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Condo
· Active
· 195 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$941/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$75
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$198
Net cashflow
$290/mo
Annual
$3,486/yr
Cap rate
14.04%
Cash-on-cash
27.66%
DSCR
2.23
1% rule
2.09%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $45k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($941 rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#825 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D-, commute F.
Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 793 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.0% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Carpeted stairs
— Worn appearance
Minor: Paint
— Faded appearance
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