1169 Norias Dr

Forney, TX 75126

$260,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 244 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$355
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $317/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($317/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Rockwall ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #83 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amy Parks-Heath El (math 68% / reading 63%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 729 students, 8% FRL); Maurine Cain Middle (math 50% / reading 51%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,122 students, 31% FRL); Rockwall-Heath H S (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,912 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.