1169 Norias Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 244 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,932 sqft lot $164/sqft · 14% below area Est $304k · 14% under $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAJOR PRICE IMPROVEMENT Welcome to 1169 Norias Drive, a beautifully maintained home in Forney’s sought-after community offering comfort, style, and modern living. This move-in-ready property features an inviting open-concept floor plan with abundant natural light, spacious living areas, and a neutral palette ideal for any décor style. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, showcasing granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a large island perfect for entertaining. The private primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with a generous walk-in closet and a spa-like ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a separate tub and shower. Additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Step outside to a well-sized backyard with a covered patio—ideal for outdoor dining, relaxation, or future personalization. Located just minutes from top-rated Forney ISD schools, parks, dining, and major commuter routes, this home blends suburban comfort with everyday convenience. Don’t miss your chance to own this gorgeous property in one of Forney’s fastest-growing neighborhoods! All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyers and buyers’ agents are advised to verify all property details, measurements, schools, and other information independently.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($317/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Rockwall ISD (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #83 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Amy Parks-Heath El (math 68% / reading 63%, grade B+, #234 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 729 students, 8% FRL); Maurine Cain Middle (math 50% / reading 51%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,122 students, 31% FRL); Rockwall-Heath H S (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,912 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2639 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,475 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,897
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -14.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2041 Henrietta Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	3mo	$240,900	$154	88
1685 Timpson Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+6%)	4mo	$270,000	$160	74
1719 Ackerly Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-3%)	5mo	$260,000	$169	72
1021 Norias Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+3%)	3mo	$249,999	$153	72
1610 Kalamath St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-11%)	2mo	$225,000	$159	71
1084 Norias Dr	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+10%)	0mo	$250,000	$144	68
2124 Hobby Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-4%)	5mo	$220,000	$144	63
2323 Mount Olive Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+13%)	2mo	$269,900	$151	59
1123 Johnson City Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+8%)	4mo	$249,900	$147	56
2804 Lenham Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-9%)	4mo	$243,000	$169	47
4407 Stockdale Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+7%)	3mo	$285,000	$167	46
1101 Johnson City Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+14%)	5mo	$249,900	$138	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,971
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,120
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,500 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2639
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,965/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $100	+0% $26	+5% $-47	+10% $-121
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-63	+0% $26	+5% $115	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $93	base $26	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	43d	1	0.22mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$2,095	$1.39	71d	1	0.22mi
1427 Ganado Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,895	$1.25	40d	1	0.22mi
17235 Lake Ray Hubbard Dr Unit Labs Forney, TX	2.0	1.0	1056	$2,950	$2.79	0d	1	0.27mi
1431 Lumberton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,450	$1.14	4d	1	0.30mi
1329 Rosenberg Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	93d	1	0.31mi
1080 Norias Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,200	$1.29	10d	1	0.32mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1619	$1,895	$1.17	62d	1	0.33mi
1804 Arcola Ct Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$1,895	$1.17	64d	1	0.33mi
2317 Mount Olive Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1728	$2,200	$1.27	38d	1	0.41mi
4122 Ellinger Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2224	$2,625	$1.18	12d	1	0.44mi
1023 Spofford Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,369	$1.22	23d	1	0.47mi
3949 Sidney Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,550	$1.31	32d	1	0.47mi
2258 Templin Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1988	$2,300	$1.16	68d	1	0.48mi
2143 Erika Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,100	$1.25	28d	1	0.50mi
2907 Doggett Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2139	$2,950	$1.38	17d	1	0.50mi
3935 Sidney Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,675	$1.34	93d	1	0.52mi
1004 Trickham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	48d	1	0.55mi
1622 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	93d	1	0.56mi
1606 Governors Blvd Heath, TX	3.0	2.5	1791	$3,000	$1.68	73d	1	0.56mi
3127 Maverick Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,750	$1.29	71d	1	0.63mi
2206 Hartley Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,375	$1.25	21d	1	0.69mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	73d	1	0.72mi
1037 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,895	$1.14	69d	1	0.72mi
2010 Diamondback Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,099	$1.20	73d	1	0.72mi
1031 Johnson City Ave Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,950	$1.21	53d	1	0.74mi
2116 Hartley Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1582	$1,995	$1.26	27d	1	0.82mi
2047 Enchanted Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	53d	1	0.82mi
2004 Crosby Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,250	$1.18	4d	1	0.83mi
2014 Zavala Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,900	$1.18	4d	1	0.89mi
2117 Silsbee Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,995	$1.20	66d	1	0.95mi
104 Scenic Dr Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1668	$2,100	$1.26	7d	1	0.96mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,200	$1.15	4d	1	0.98mi
2302 Tombstone Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	93d	1	0.98mi
2075 Hartley Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	43d	1	1.00mi
5672 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,879	$0.96	30d	1	1.17mi
5661 McClelland St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,945	$1.22	43d	1	1.20mi
5681 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,070	$1.06	70d	1	1.20mi
5693 McClelland St Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1685	$1,839	$1.09	56d	1	1.20mi
2415 Anton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1891	$2,200	$1.16	66d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $260,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $260,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $260,000 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $260,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $260,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $260,000 Active 233 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $260,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $260,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $260,000 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $260,000 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $260,000 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $260,000 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $260,000 Active 223 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $260,000 Active 222 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $260,000 Active 221 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $260,000 Active 220 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $270,000 Active 219 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 218 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 217 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $270,000 Active 216 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $270,000 Active 215 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 214 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 212 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $270,000 Active 211 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $270,000 Active 210 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $270,000 Active 209 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 208 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 207 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 206 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $270,000 Active 205 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $270,000 Active 204 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $270,000 Active 203 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $270,000 Active 202 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $270,000 Active 201 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $270,000 Active 199 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $270,000 Active 197 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $270,000 Active 196 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $270,000 Active 193 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $270,000 Active 192 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $270,000 Active 191 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $270,000 Active 190 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 188 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $270,000 Active 187 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $270,000 Active 184 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $270,000 Active 183 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $270,000 Active 182 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 179 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,965 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,793/yr (+$149/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,965
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$4,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $1,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home in Forney's sought-after community features an inviting open-concept floor plan with abundant natural light and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace blinds with energy-efficient window treatments — Energy-efficient blinds improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Amy Parks-Heath El B+ TX #234/4,322 Nat'l #5,011/41,679 Middle Maurine Cain Middle C TX #333/1,662 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Rockwall-Heath H S C TX #364/1,632 Nat'l #4,365/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockwall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837650
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $88,800
• Composite: 49.82/100
• National rank: #1952
• State rank: #83 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $280,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,965 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.