443 County Road 31

Sparrow Bush, NY 13843

$100,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,149/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $217/mo
• Annual: $2,600/yr
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.5% in Sparrow Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Signs of water damage and possible leaks
• Major: siding — Peeling paint and siding
• Major: flooring — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major: interior walls — Peeling paint and signs of wear
• Major: windows — Old and possibly not functioning properly
• Major: HVAC system — Old and possibly not functioning properly