443 County Road 31 · Sparrow Bush, NY 13843

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition 0.34 ac lot $85/sqft · 71% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dwelling was a complete remodel several years ago; it is tenant occupied and needs repairs to coverings. Roof, siding and windows have been updated. 1st floor bedroom with private bath; another main bath on the 1st floor. Attached carport with access to the full basement. Appliances are the tenants and do not convey- including washer/dryer.

Key facts

• Complete remodel
• Attached carport
• Siding updates

Tags

• COMPLETE REMODEL
• ROOF UPDATES
• SIDING UPDATES
• WINDOW UPDATES
• PRIVATE BATH
• ATTACHED CARPORT

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $100,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$343,086) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 2.5% in Sparrow Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.28%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,086
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -70.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $63,434
• Equity at exit: $84,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.25×
• Total profit: $174,898
• Equity at exit: $177,943

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13843

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 378-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $100,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Dwelling was a complete remodel several years ago; it is tenant occupied and needs repairs to coverings. Roof, siding and windows have been updated. 1st floor bedroom with private bath; another main bath on the 1st floor. Attached carport with access to the full basement. Appliances are the tenants and do not convey- including washer/dryer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of water damage and possible leaks
• Major siding — Peeling paint and siding
• Major flooring — Worn and possibly damaged
• Major interior walls — Peeling paint and signs of wear
• Major windows — Old and possibly not functioning properly
• Major HVAC system — Old and possibly not functioning properly

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — Fixing the roof will improve the overall condition and appearance of the home
• Both New siding and paint — Updating the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn flooring will improve the home's condition and appearance
• Both New interior walls and paint — Repainting and updating the interior walls will improve the home's condition and appearance
• Both New windows — Replacing old windows will improve the home's condition and appearance and possibly increase energy efficiency
• Both New HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and possibly increase energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of water damage and possible leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling paint and siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and possibly damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Peeling paint and signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old and possibly not functioning properly	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and possibly not functioning properly	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — Fixing the roof will improve the overall condition and appearance of the home ↑
• Both New siding and paint — Updating the exterior will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value ↑
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn flooring will improve the home's condition and appearance ↑
• Both New interior walls and paint — Repainting and updating the interior walls will improve the home's condition and appearance ↑
• Both New windows — Replacing old windows will improve the home's condition and appearance and possibly increase energy efficiency ↑
• Both New HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and possibly increase energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sparrow Bush

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,014

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.29%
• Current HPI: 295.6361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $100,000 UNYREIS