541 16th St

Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$82,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 1925 · MultiFamily · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $1,152/mo
• Annual: $13,824/yr
• Cap rate: 23.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.21%
• DSCR: 3.68
• 1% rule: 2.90%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/2.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $576/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $82k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,377/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?