916 Bel Air Blvd

Lovejoy, GA 30228

$125,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$681
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-300/mo
• Annual: $-3,596/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.28%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-300 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (34.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#317 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eddie White Middle School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #399 of 470 statewide, top 86%, 1,438 students, 90% FRL); Lovejoy High School (math 7% / reading 8%, grade F, #378 of 424 statewide, top 91%, 2,136 students, 90% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 685 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 4.8% in Lovejoy — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.