9820 N Smalley Ave

Kansas City, MO 64157

$390,000F

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$444
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-788/mo
• Annual: $-9,453/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (43.7% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (43.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Liberty 53 (suburban): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 324 in MO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shoal Creek Elem. (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B+, #63 of 1,115 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 8% FRL); Liberty High (math 33% / reading 75%, grade C-, #82 of 521 statewide, top 16%, 1,997 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.