9820 N Smalley Ave · Kansas City, MO 64157

$390,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2005 3,485 sqft lot Est $418k · 7% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bdrm, 3 bath attached patio home w/ 2 gas fireplaces and a finished walkout bsmt backs to greenspace. 2 car garage w/ one side 26 ft. Upgrades include; new HV/AC Nov. '08, humidifier on furnace, custom blinds & shutters, tinted windows, upgraded plumbing in bathrooms. Add $300 per yr to HOA-pool. NEW furnace & AC unit (installed 11/10/08), NEW garage door opener

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (43.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (43.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Liberty 53 (suburban): math 41% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 324 in MO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shoal Creek Elem. (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B+, #63 of 1,115 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 8% FRL); Liberty High (math 33% / reading 75%, grade C-, #82 of 521 statewide, top 16%, 1,997 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 341 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $219,548 (43.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,648
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8105 NE 98th St	0.18mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,811 (+14%)	6mo	$375,000	$207	55
8051 NE 102nd St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,442 (-9%)	13mo	$380,000	$264	40
8505 NE 97th Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (-15%)	7mo	$365,000	$271	38
10123 N Ditman Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,652 (+4%)	18mo	$370,000	$224	37
10215 N Oakland Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (+8%)	22mo	$494,997	$290	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,840
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-100,776
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64157

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.5%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,378/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,193

Max offer price $250,838

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $390,000 Active
4. 2026-02-10
   historical $390,000
5. 2018-07-09
   soldstatus
6. 2009-07-29
   soldstatus
7. 2009-07-24
   soldstatus 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bdrm, 3 bath attached patio home w/ 2 gas fireplaces and a finished walkout bsmt backs to greenspace. 2 car garage w/ one side 26 ft. Upgrades include; new HV/AC Nov. '08, humidifier on furnace, custom blinds & shutters, tinted windows, upgraded plumbing in bathrooms. Add $300 per yr to HOA-pool. NEW furnace & AC unit (installed 11/10/08), NEW garage door opener

8. 2008-06-16
   listed $190,000 388-char remark

   Show marketing remark (388 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bdrm, 3 bath attached patio home w/ 2 gas fireplaces and a finished walkout bsmt backs to greenspace. 2 car garage w/ one side 26 ft. Upgrades include; new HV/AC Nov. '08, humidifier on furnace, custom blinds & shutters, tinted windows, upgraded plumbing in bathrooms. Add $300 per yr to HOA-pool. NEW furnace & AC unit (installed 11/10/08), NEW garage door opener

9. 2004-07-19
   soldstatus 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bdrm & 2 bdrm attached patio homes w/ 2 ba. Some models w/ bsmts-some w/ out. All homes include generous appliance allowance on GE appliances. Monthly maintenance to include lawn care-snow removal-ext building maintenance & homeowners insurance-(projected monthly fee $130.00)-HOA fee-$250. a yr for pool & walking trail. Agent it's recommended you show models on the projected date for completation, 7-15-03. Current info is available at Brighton Woods Townhomes. Govt financing additional $1200.

10. 2003-01-14
    listed $176,900 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Beautiful 3 bdrm & 2 bdrm attached patio homes w/ 2 ba. Some models w/ bsmts-some w/ out. All homes include generous appliance allowance on GE appliances. Monthly maintenance to include lawn care-snow removal-ext building maintenance & homeowners insurance-(projected monthly fee $130.00)-HOA fee-$250. a yr for pool & walking trail. Agent it's recommended you show models on the projected date for completation, 7-15-03. Current info is available at Brighton Woods Townhomes. Govt financing additional $1200.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,378 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: +$405/yr (+$34/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,378
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$16,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty 53
• NCES district ID: 2918540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,226
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #2624
• State rank: #24 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kansas City

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #2671

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kansas City, MO
• County: Clay County · 220,651 people
• City population: 439,467
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 23,030
• Household income: $149,526
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 87.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 266,022 people
• By 2030: 280,057 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 306,153 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 328,630 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 375,182 · +41.0%
• By 2100: 392,861 · +47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.6) · D 46.4% · R 52.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: -5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.6 2020: R+4.1 2016: R+11.1 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.38%
• Current HPI: 195.9921
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+120.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $390,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Coming Soon $390,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-24 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-16 Listed $190,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-19 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-14 Listed $176,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid