215 Tolman Creek Rd Spc 16

Ashland, OR 97520

$105,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1985 · Land · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $899/mo
• Annual: $10,784/yr
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.68%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.91%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $899 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 368 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $105k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.