215 Tolman Creek Rd Spc 16 · Ashland, OR 97520

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Land public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1985 $84/sqft · 16% below area Est $124k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1985
• Listed 162 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $899 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $105k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.68%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,278
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -15.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $37,621
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.27×
• Total profit: $96,061
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97520

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $899

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $928	+0% $899	+5% $869	+10% $839
Rent	-10% $740	-5% $820	+0% $899	+5% $978	+10% $1,057
Rate	-1.0pp $952	-0.5pp $925	base $899	+0.5pp $871	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Tolman Creek Rd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	988	$1,995	$2.02	14d	1	0.14mi
2976 Grizzly Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,350	$1.74	21d	1	0.63mi
791 Faith Ave Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	21d	1	0.74mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	14d	1	0.75mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	44d	1	0.75mi
732 Normal Ave Unit 732 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1111	$1,895	$1.71	14d	1	0.75mi
878 Clay St Ashland, OR	1.0	1.5	798	$1,595	$2.00	21d	1	0.77mi
826 Park St Unit 826 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1234	$1,995	$1.62	21d	1	0.80mi
2080 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	882	$1,500	$1.70	21d	1	0.87mi
854 Twin Pines Cir #12 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	896	$1,700	$1.90	14d	1	0.91mi
2370 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,995	$1.59	14d	1	0.96mi
139 N Wightman St Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,250	$1.85	44d	1	1.16mi
77 California St Unit 5 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,150	$1.12	44d	1	1.19mi
77 California St Unit 2 Ashland, OR	1.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	1.19mi
93 California St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	1132	$2,095	$1.85	21d	1	1.20mi
102 Garfield St Apt 20 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,150	$1.39	44d	1	1.23mi
73 S Mountain Ave Ashland, OR	1.0	1.0	800	$1,525	$1.91	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 143 DOM
18. 2026-02-26
    price $105,000 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

19. 2026-02-05
    status Active 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

20. 2026-02-05
    price $110,000 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

21. 2026-01-29
    status Pending 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

22. 2026-01-01
    listed $115,000 Active 1034-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

    Tucked into a quiet corner of Tolman Creek Park, this light-filled 2 bedroom, 1.5-bath-manufactured home offers a rare blend of privacy & connection. The spacious living & dining area spans the entire front of the home, welcoming you with abundant natural light & an easy, open flow for everyday living or entertaining. Out back, enjoy peaceful views backing to the YMCA soccer field, serene & open, yet far from feeling isolated. Cozy up by the wood stove on cooler days or step into the screened-in back porch complete with a sink, an ideal space for a craft room, workshop, or creative retreat. Multiple storage sheds add valuable functionality, while the park itself features a lovely grassy open space, perfect for casual community get-togethers or chatting with neighbors as you pick up your mail. Guest parking is conveniently located just across the street from the driveway. Comfortable, welcoming, & well-situated, this home offers a wonderful balance of quiet living & friendly community.

23. 2020-04-25
    historical
24. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus $69,100
25. 2006-05-19
    listed $69,000
26. 2002-10-01
    listed $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $9,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,318
• After-tax cash flow: $8,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4101560
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,917
• Composite: 57.0/100
• National rank: #2358
• State rank: #5 of 183 in OR

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1019

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 26,512
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 26,512
• Household income: $67,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.69%
• Current HPI: 231.9587
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $105,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $110,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-29 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-01-01 Listed $115,000 MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2006-08-01 Sold (MLS) $69,100 MLSCO
• 2006-05-19 Listed $69,000 MLSCO
• 2002-10-01 Listed $69,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,079 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.