1856 Poplar Ridge Rd

Aurora, NY 13026

$390,000A-

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,472 sqft · Built 1860 · MultiFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,159
• Net cashflow: $9,389/mo
• Annual: $112,666/yr
• Cap rate: 35.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.17%
• DSCR: 5.59
• 1% rule: 3.86%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/4.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $367k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $390k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?