1856 Poplar Ridge Rd · Aurora, NY 13026

$390,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,472 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1860 1.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Versatile 4-unit multi-family property in the heart of the Finger Lakes, offering strong income potential, owner-occupant flexibility, or multi-generational living. Located just minutes from Aurora and Cayuga Lake, this property is ideally positioned near wineries, state parks, public lake access, and popular destinations like the Aurora Inn and MacKenzie-Childs. The building includes a mix of units—three income-producing apartments plus a spacious owner’s unit—making it ideal for investors or those looking to offset living expenses. Live in one unit while generating rental income from the others, or explore short-term rental/Airbnb possibilities in this high-demand tourism area. Set on a flat 1.5-acre lot with ample parking, there’s room for boats, RVs, or additional outdoor use. The property has seen several important updates, including newer windows (2021), a new house roof (2025), garage roof (2024), upgraded 200-amp electric service, and a new well pump (2024). Conveniently located within walking distance to Southern Cayuga Middle/High School and a short drive to Ithaca, this property combines rural charm with accessibility. Whether you're seeking an investment property, vacation rental opportunity, or flexible living arrangement, this one offers endless potential in a desirable Cayuga County location.

Key facts

• Income property
• Large flat lot
• 1.5 acre lot

Tags

• VICTORIAN 4 UNIT HOME
• 5 MINUTES FROM AURORA
• 5 MINUTES FROM CAYUGA LAKE
• OPERATING YOUR OWN AIRBNB
• INCOME PROPERTY
• LARGE FLAT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/4.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $367k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#530 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $390k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $366,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.17%
• DSCR: 5.59
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $810,487
• Equity at exit: $351,343

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.55×
• Total profit: $1,916,710
• Equity at exit: $757,684

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13026

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,440/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,159
• Net cashflow: $9,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,157

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 33%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	6	4.5	$15,044
Total (4 units)			$15,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $390,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $390,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $390,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $390,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $390,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $390,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $390,000 1352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

    Versatile 4-unit multi-family property in the heart of the Finger Lakes, offering strong income potential, owner-occupant flexibility, or multi-generational living. Located just minutes from Aurora and Cayuga Lake, this property is ideally positioned near wineries, state parks, public lake access, and popular destinations like the Aurora Inn and MacKenzie-Childs. The building includes a mix of units—three income-producing apartments plus a spacious owner’s unit—making it ideal for investors or those looking to offset living expenses. Live in one unit while generating rental income from the others, or explore short-term rental/Airbnb possibilities in this high-demand tourism area. Set on a flat 1.5-acre lot with ample parking, there’s room for boats, RVs, or additional outdoor use. The property has seen several important updates, including newer windows (2021), a new house roof (2025), garage roof (2024), upgraded 200-amp electric service, and a new well pump (2024). Conveniently located within walking distance to Southern Cayuga Middle/High School and a short drive to Ithaca, this property combines rural charm with accessibility. Whether you're seeking an investment property, vacation rental opportunity, or flexible living arrangement, this one offers endless potential in a desirable Cayuga County location.

18. 2026-04-02
    listed $400,000 Active 1352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1352 chars)

    Versatile 4-unit multi-family property in the heart of the Finger Lakes, offering strong income potential, owner-occupant flexibility, or multi-generational living. Located just minutes from Aurora and Cayuga Lake, this property is ideally positioned near wineries, state parks, public lake access, and popular destinations like the Aurora Inn and MacKenzie-Childs. The building includes a mix of units—three income-producing apartments plus a spacious owner’s unit—making it ideal for investors or those looking to offset living expenses. Live in one unit while generating rental income from the others, or explore short-term rental/Airbnb possibilities in this high-demand tourism area. Set on a flat 1.5-acre lot with ample parking, there’s room for boats, RVs, or additional outdoor use. The property has seen several important updates, including newer windows (2021), a new house roof (2025), garage roof (2024), upgraded 200-amp electric service, and a new well pump (2024). Conveniently located within walking distance to Southern Cayuga Middle/High School and a short drive to Ithaca, this property combines rural charm with accessibility. Whether you're seeking an investment property, vacation rental opportunity, or flexible living arrangement, this one offers endless potential in a desirable Cayuga County location.

19. 2021-09-23
    listed $340,000
20. 2021-06-29
    listed $345,000
21. 2021-05-06
    listed $345,000
22. 2006-05-31
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,440 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,015 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,576/yr (+$131/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $180,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,440
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,440
• − Management: −$14,440
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $113,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27,130
• After-tax cash flow: $85,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Cayuga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627570
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,177
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1524
• State rank: #214 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #530
• US rank: #9549

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,703

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.77%
• Current HPI: 410.3875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+212.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $390,000 IBRMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $400,000 IBRMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $340,000 IBRMLS
• 2021-06-29 Listed $345,000 IBRMLS
• 2021-05-06 Listed $345,000 IBRMLS
• 2006-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,440 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.