617 N Cedar St

Kermit, TX 79745

$165,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,199 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#925 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kermit ISD (town): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #602 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kermit El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 77% FRL); Kermit J H (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 406 students, 74% FRL); Kermit H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 372 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Winkler County population projected at +67% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.