617 N Cedar St · Kermit, TX 79745

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,199 sqft · Manufactured · 43 Days on market

Built 2018 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, 2 bath 2018 Clayton mobile home on large lot with double carport and small shop in back. Neat clean home ready to move in to. Back on market and ready to go. Appraised at $153,000.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Quiet neighborhood
• Minutes from schools

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS
• LOCAL PARKS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Residential single family residence
• Construction: Composition roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Landscaped yard; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Blinds; Electric water heater; Home warranty included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#925 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kermit ISD (town): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #602 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kermit El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 77% FRL); Kermit J H (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 406 students, 74% FRL); Kermit H S (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 372 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Winkler County population projected at +67% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $107,834
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $303,496
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79745

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $339	+0% $282	+5% $225	+10% $168
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $211	+0% $282	+5% $353	+10% $424
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $324	base $282	+0.5pp $239	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
452 North Avenue B Unit B Kermit, TX	3.0	1.5	1220	$1,800	$1.48	45d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 494-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $165,000 Active 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$192
• After-tax cash flow: $3,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kermit ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825560
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,332
• Composite: 26.47/100
• National rank: #7215
• State rank: #602 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kermit

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #925
• US rank: #16453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kermit, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Winkler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,019 people
• By 2030: 11,177 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 13,746 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 16,734 · +67.0%
• By 2075: 24,573 · +145.3%
• By 2100: 30,264 · +202.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Winkler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 14.7% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+65.6 2016: R+52.5 2012: R+53.5 2008: R+51.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 233.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-04 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $165,000 ODMLS
• 2024-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-03 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2024-06-20 Pending — ODMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $152,500 ODMLS
• 2024-06-12 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2024-05-22 Pending — ODMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $142,500 ODMLS

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $206 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.