12201 Meadowlake

Guthrie, OK 73044

$220,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,568/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Edmond (suburban): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #11 of 270 in OK (top 4%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cross Timbers Es (math 61% / reading 48%, grade C, #23 of 845 statewide, top 3%, 846 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah Ms (math 40% / reading 34%, grade F, #17 of 345 statewide, top 6%, 1,006 students, 0% FRL); North Hs (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #1 of 447 statewide, top 0%, 2,555 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 22% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 851 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $220k implies a 430% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.