27 Ely Brook Rd

Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,190,000C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,384/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,485
• Tax + insurance: −$1,788
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,911
• Net cashflow: $5,200/mo
• Annual: $62,404/yr
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.18%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $613,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.19M).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.06M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $2.19M implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $613k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $23,384/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.