27 Ely Brook Rd · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1980 1.30 ac lot $1217/sqft · 20% above area Est $1822k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Private Summer Escape in East Hampton Tucked away behind a gated entrance on 1.4 acres in the historic Northwest Woods of East Hampton, this impeccably renovated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers the ultimate in privacy, comfort, and timeless elegance. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the home features soaring vaulted ceilings, gleaming hardwood floors, and an architecturally striking layout that fills the space with natural light from sunrise to sunset. The heart of the home is the beautifully renovated chef’s kitchen, which flows seamlessly into an open-concept living and dining area—ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day at the beach. Enjoy central air conditioning, baseboard heating, 200-amp electrical service, and custom upgrades throughout for a true turn-key experience. Step outside to your very own private retreat—an oversized mahogany patio, newly lined heated pool, and lush landscaping create a serene oasis just minutes from East Hampton’s famed village, Sammy’s Beach, Cedar Point Park, wineries, boating, and more. Whether you're looking for a quiet luxury getaway or a high-performing investment, this home checks every box. With a proven Airbnb rental history and strong rent roll, it offers both personal enjoyment and income potential. Taxes are $10,510 - WOW Don’t miss this opportunity to experience the very best of the Hamptons lifestyle.

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.19M).
• Recommended offer: $2.06M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,384/mo this rent would consume 216% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $15k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $66k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $613k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $2.19M implies a 564% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,058,599 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.18%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,822,214
• List price: $2,190,000
• Delta: 20.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $99,123
• Equity at exit: $326,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $1,072,042
• Equity at exit: $189,351

Cash invested: $613,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$11,485
• Tax from tax record: −$876 /mo · $10,510/yr
• Insurance: −$912
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,911
• Net cashflow: $5,200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,801

Max offer price $2,190,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,440	-5% $5,820	+0% $5,200	+5% $4,580	+10% $3,961
Rent	-10% $3,353	-5% $4,277	+0% $5,200	+5% $6,124	+10% $7,048
Rate	-1.0pp $6,303	-0.5pp $5,757	base $5,200	+0.5pp $4,633	+1.0pp $4,055

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $547,500
• Closing costs: $65,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Deer Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	3.0	1300	$80,000	$61.54	25d	1	0.95mi
8 White Pine Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	3.5	2000	$60,000	$30.00	25d	1	1.21mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	25d	1	1.33mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,190,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,190,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $2,190,000 Active 1417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1417 chars)

    Your Private Summer Escape in East Hampton Tucked away behind a gated entrance on 1.4 acres in the historic Northwest Woods of East Hampton, this impeccably renovated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers the ultimate in privacy, comfort, and timeless elegance. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the home features soaring vaulted ceilings, gleaming hardwood floors, and an architecturally striking layout that fills the space with natural light from sunrise to sunset. The heart of the home is the beautifully renovated chef’s kitchen, which flows seamlessly into an open-concept living and dining area—ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day at the beach. Enjoy central air conditioning, baseboard heating, 200-amp electrical service, and custom upgrades throughout for a true turn-key experience. Step outside to your very own private retreat—an oversized mahogany patio, newly lined heated pool, and lush landscaping create a serene oasis just minutes from East Hampton’s famed village, Sammy’s Beach, Cedar Point Park, wineries, boating, and more. Whether you're looking for a quiet luxury getaway or a high-performing investment, this home checks every box. With a proven Airbnb rental history and strong rent roll, it offers both personal enjoyment and income potential. Taxes are $10,510 - WOW Don’t miss this opportunity to experience the very best of the Hamptons lifestyle.

17. 2026-04-14
    historical $2,190,000 1417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1417 chars)

    Your Private Summer Escape in East Hampton Tucked away behind a gated entrance on 1.4 acres in the historic Northwest Woods of East Hampton, this impeccably renovated 4-bedroom, 3-bath home offers the ultimate in privacy, comfort, and timeless elegance. Thoughtfully updated throughout, the home features soaring vaulted ceilings, gleaming hardwood floors, and an architecturally striking layout that fills the space with natural light from sunrise to sunset. The heart of the home is the beautifully renovated chef’s kitchen, which flows seamlessly into an open-concept living and dining area—ideal for entertaining or relaxing after a day at the beach. Enjoy central air conditioning, baseboard heating, 200-amp electrical service, and custom upgrades throughout for a true turn-key experience. Step outside to your very own private retreat—an oversized mahogany patio, newly lined heated pool, and lush landscaping create a serene oasis just minutes from East Hampton’s famed village, Sammy’s Beach, Cedar Point Park, wineries, boating, and more. Whether you're looking for a quiet luxury getaway or a high-performing investment, this home checks every box. With a proven Airbnb rental history and strong rent roll, it offers both personal enjoyment and income potential. Taxes are $10,510 - WOW Don’t miss this opportunity to experience the very best of the Hamptons lifestyle.

18. 2026-04-12
    historical
19. 2025-09-12
    price $2,190,000
20. 2025-04-11
    listed $2,290,000 Active
21. 2023-10-25
    historical
22. 2023-10-22
    listed
23. 1998-04-30
    soldstatus $330,000
24. 1988-12-06
    soldstatus $318,000
25. 1985-06-25
    soldstatus $222,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,510 · $876/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,761 · $1,980/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,250/yr (+$1,104/mo · 126.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $280,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$122,674
• − Property taxes: −$10,510
• − Insurance: −$10,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,449
• − Management: −$22,449
• − Depreciation: −$63,709
• Taxable income: $27,866
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,688
• After-tax cash flow: $55,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+884.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $2,190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $2,190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $2,190,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Listed $2,290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-25 Rental Removed — LISTANZA
• 2023-10-22 Listed for Rent — LISTANZA
• 1998-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $318,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,510 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.