5815 Fawn Valley Dr

San Antonio, TX 78242

$193,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,733/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,139/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $54,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• South San Antonio ISD (urban): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #804 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Five Palms El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 510 students, 93% FRL); South San Antonio H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,786 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 42% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.