5815 Fawn Valley Dr · San Antonio, TX 78242

$193,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1968 9,539 sqft lot $144/sqft · 12% below area Est $227k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and full of charm, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick home truly reflects pride of ownership! Meticulously cared for and thoughtfully updated, this move-in ready home offers fantastic curb appeal with fresh interior and exterior paint. Step inside to a spacious living room filled with natural light, complemented by updated fixtures, ceiling fans in every room, and no carpet throughout. The kitchen is both functional and inviting, featuring an island, abundant cabinet space with convenient pull-out drawers, and a brand new stainless steel gas stove and microwave (2025). The oversized laundry room is a standout, offering additional cabinetry for excellent storage and organi

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Updated fixtures
• Island

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• PULL-OUT DRAWERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Neighborhood improvements include paved streets, curbs, street gutters, sidewalks, streetlights, and a fire hydrant within 500 ft.
• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Located in Valley Forest subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Water service by SAWS; Sewer service by SAWS; Gas supplied by CPS Energy; Electricity supplied by CPS Energy; City garbage service
• Home design: Pre-owned home; Level lot; Accessible/adaptable home with features such as 2+ access exits, wide interior and exterior door openings, grab bars, no steps, and bathroom on first floor
• Construction: Brick and vinyl exterior with one side masonry; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Approximately 58 years old
• Exterior features: Covered patio and patio slab; Chain link fence; Storage building/shed; Gutters; Mature trees; Storm doors; Double-pane windows

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Microwave; Ice maker connection
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet, ceiling fan, and half bath; Bedroom 2 approximately 10 x 10; Bedroom 3 approximately 10 x 10; Master bedroom approximately 12 x 12
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One half bath; Master bath with single vanity and no tub or shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Disposal; Vent fan; Smoke alarm; Owned security system; Solid countertops; City garbage service; Eat-in kitchen with island; Ground-level/no steps entry; Cable TV available; High-speed internet; All bedrooms on lower level; Laundry room on main/lower level; All window coverings remain
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Utility room inside; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• South San Antonio ISD (urban): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #804 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Five Palms El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 510 students, 93% FRL); South San Antonio H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,786 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 42% district-wide (51 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,278 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.10%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,506
• List price: $193,500
• Delta: -14.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5903 Autumn Palms	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-5%)	4mo	$199,500	$156	82
5911 Middlefield	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-8%)	1mo	$195,000	$158	71
7143 Laurel Valley Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-9%)	4mo	$184,900	$151	67
7030 Grand Valley St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-9%)	3mo	$165,000	$135	66
5906 Knoll Krest	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,285 (-4%)	2mo	$195,000	$152	64
7126 Grand Vly	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+12%)	1mo	$255,000	$170	64
5915 Middlefield	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-12%)	3mo	$175,900	$149	63
5643 Vista Pont	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-9%)	0mo	$215,000	$175	60
5647 Middlefield	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,199 (-11%)	3mo	$134,900	$113	55
5502 Aspen Valley St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	1mo	$187,000	$128	53
7306 Vista Grv	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (+13%)	4mo	$235,000	$154	48
6023 Redbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-12%)	1mo	$148,000	$125	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-42,372
• Equity at exit: $28,851

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-63,881
• Equity at exit: $16,730

Cash invested: $54,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78242

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,015
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,421/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,853

Max offer price $176,740

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,375
• Closing costs: $5,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7058 Dominic Vly San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,650	$0.98	44d	1	0.12mi
5938 Autumn Palms San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	2d	1	0.22mi
5927 Mohave Vly San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,750	$1.20	24d	1	0.28mi
7026 Randado Ct San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$3,000	$1.80	2d	1	0.36mi
5715 Mountain Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,900	$1.14	44d	1	0.39mi
6106 Cedar Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	4d	1	0.46mi
5634 Mountain Pt San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,745	$0.93	22d	1	0.46mi
5611 Elm Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	0.48mi
6802 Cougar Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,550	$1.24	44d	1	0.51mi
5539 Pearl Vly San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,925	$1.09	4d	1	0.54mi
5535 Cool Valley St San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	1716	$1,700	$0.99	3d	1	0.54mi
5543 Coral Vly San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,750	$1.14	24d	1	0.55mi
5619 Stonybrook Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	888	$1,425	$1.60	44d	1	0.58mi
6611 Cougar Vlg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	15d	1	0.61mi
5547 Stonybrook Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,425	$1.41	24d	1	0.65mi
106 Wayfarer Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1595	$1,850	$1.16	12d	1	0.66mi
5406 Elm Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$3,000	$1.80	2d	1	0.67mi
6943 Emerald Vly San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,650	$1.23	15d	1	0.75mi
7411 Hazel Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,450	$1.13	16d	1	0.77mi
6719 Dragon Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,700	$1.40	24d	1	0.78mi
6627 Freedom Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.78mi
5415 Ray Ellison Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,240	$1.41	4d	24	0.79mi
6230 Hazel Valley St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,650	$1.23	22d	1	0.80mi
6619 Freedom Hls San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1410	$1,900	$1.35	2d	1	0.81mi
7515 Holm Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,404	$1.58	3d	31	0.83mi
5350 Military Dr W Unit 710 San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1082	$907	$0.84	16d	1	0.84mi
5350 W Military Dr San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,356	$1.40	2d	54	0.85mi
150 Rustleaf Dr San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,099	$1.22	2d	46	0.86mi
6214 Slate Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	920	$1,100	$1.20	24d	1	0.90mi
6010 Ray Ellison Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,418	$1.46	44d	1	0.95mi
7319 Walnut Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,900	$1.65	12d	1	0.95mi
6286 Apple Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	2d	1	0.99mi
6127 Bright Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,336	$0.87	4d	1	1.13mi
6127 Bright Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,365	$0.89	24d	1	1.13mi
6243 Indian Valley Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	4d	1	1.17mi
7006 Heathers Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,850	$1.00	18d	1	1.19mi
7050 Hallie Rdg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,535	$0.95	12d	1	1.19mi
8671 SW Loop 410 San Antonio, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1024	$1,405	$1.37	16d	7	1.27mi
6911 Hallie Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,475	$1.01	44d	1	1.28mi
5523 Indian Desert St San Antonio, TX	4.0	1.5	1192	$1,325	$1.11	18d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $193,500 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $193,500 Active Option 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $193,500 Active Option 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $193,500 Back on Market 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,500 Back on Market 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,500 Back on Market 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-05
    listed $193,500 New 1239-char remark
13. 1986-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,421 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,421 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,839
• − Property taxes: −$4,421
• − Insurance: −$968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$5,629
• Taxable loss: −$4,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,460
• Composite: 13.6/100
• National rank: #9511
• State rank: #804 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,168
• Household income: $50,644
• Rent vs Own: 46.4% rent · 53.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 25% White 8% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.63%
• Current HPI: 259.9788
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — LERA
• 2026-06-02 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-23 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-05 Listed $193,500 LERA
• 1986-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,421 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.