4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,816 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,392/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$356
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$502
Net cashflow
$-14/mo
Annual
$-169/yr
Cap rate
6.24%
Cash-on-cash
-0.21%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$82,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-169/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (0.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (18.9% below list).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $239k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#117 in FL, #1,790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Wright Elementary School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 635 students, 73% FRL); Choctawhatchee Senior High School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,677 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 47% at this address vs 60% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Okaloosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $225k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Wright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QC8SCN608X6M45
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29