4620 Pioneers Blvd #11

Lincoln, NE 68506

$195,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-777/mo
• Annual: $-9,321/yr
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.40%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $81,740

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-777 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (14.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $167k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Calvert Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #346 of 502 statewide, top 74%, 312 students, 57% FRL); Pound Middle School (math 60% / reading 59%, grade B, #18 of 128 statewide, top 15%, 727 students, 39% FRL); Lincoln Southeast High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade D+, #105 of 261 statewide, top 40%, 1,929 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.