4620 Pioneers Blvd #11 · Lincoln, NE 68506

$195,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,604 sqft · Townhouse · 8 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition $75/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your path to homeownership starts here! Welcome to Promenade at Pioneers, a vibrant new townhome community in the heart of College View offering beautifully designed homes for under $200K. Step inside to bright, open living spaces filled with natural light, elevated ceilings, and stylish finishes including quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances. The spacious primary suite features a walk-in closet and private ensuite bath, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, hobbies, or a home office. Relax on the charming front patio or private covered deck, and enjoy the convenience of an attached garage and extra off-street parking. The unfinished basement provides room to

Key facts

• Open living spaces
• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN LIVING SPACES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $195,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $291,928.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-777 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#5 in NE, #545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Lincoln Public Schools (urban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #59 of 111 in NE (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Calvert Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #346 of 502 statewide, top 74%, 312 students, 57% FRL); Pound Middle School (math 60% / reading 59%, grade B, #18 of 128 statewide, top 15%, 727 students, 39% FRL); Lincoln Southeast High School (math 51% / reading 52%, grade D+, #105 of 261 statewide, top 40%, 1,929 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,940 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (895 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $166,544 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.40%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4620 Pioneers Blvd #11	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,604 (0%)	0mo	$195,000	$122	100
4620 Pioneers Blvd #9	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,581 (-1%)	0mo	$195,000	$123	97
8908 S 47th St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (+10%)	0mo	$320,879	$183	55
8904 S 47th St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (+10%)	1mo	$319,999	$182	55
8847 S 47th St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (+10%)	2mo	$324,999	$185	53
8827 S 47th St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (+10%)	3mo	$328,199	$187	52
8831 S 47th St	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,757 (+10%)	4mo	$319,999	$182	52
4840 S 55 Ct S	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+2%)	12mo	$264,000	$161	52
4921 S 55th Ct	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,640 (+2%)	14mo	$269,900	$165	50
4851 S 55th Ct	0.69mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,533 (-4%)	8mo	$280,000	$183	47
4830 S 55th Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (+4%)	9mo	$240,000	$144	47
4000 S 56th St Unit 111B	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-12%)	10mo	$182,500	$129	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-95,575
• Equity at exit: $43,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-141,937
• Equity at exit: $25,241

Cash invested: $81,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68506

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,531
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,379/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,649

Max offer price $179,531

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,982
• Closing costs: $8,758
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4125 High St Lincoln, NE	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,950	$1.22	21d	1	0.78mi
5218 High St Lincoln, NE	4.0	1.5	1769	$1,899	$1.07	44d	1	0.82mi
2800 Woods Blvd Lincoln, NE	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,152	$1.03	14d	5	1.28mi
5649 S 31st St Lincoln, NE	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$1,425	$1.43	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $195,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,353
• − Property taxes: −$4,379
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,599
• − Management: −$1,599
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,492
• Taxable loss: −$14,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,551
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172840
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,273
• Composite: 44.05/100
• National rank: #2880
• State rank: #59 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #545

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NE
• County: Lancaster County · 291,509 people
• City population: 291,509
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• Population (ZIP): 27,531
• Household income: $72,637
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1150.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 352,806 people
• By 2030: 377,899 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 428,582 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 483,103 · +36.9%
• By 2075: 632,390 · +79.2%
• By 2100: 759,513 · +115.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.1% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 5.0pp · 2024: 4.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.3 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+0.1 2012: R+1.0 2008: D+5.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -253.20%
• Current HPI: 234.2428
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Lincoln, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — GPRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $195,000 GPRMLS