360 Cr 2021

Shelbyville, TX 75973

$100,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,034/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $227/mo
• Annual: $2,730/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.75%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shelbyville ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #159 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.