360 Cr 2021 · Shelbyville, TX 75973

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1985 0.90 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on approximately 0.9 acres, this 1985 18x80 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a functional layout. The home features a wood-burning stove and recent flooring updates in the primary bedroom, kitchen, and living area. Enjoy both front and back porches, providing comfortable outdoor space. The property includes a 14x20 storage building with a 12x20 lean-to, along with a 14x20 boat shed. Conveniently located just 1/4 mile from the public boat ramp at East Hamilton on Toledo Bend, making it well suited for lake-area living.

Key facts

• Storage building
• Public boat ramp
• Boat shed

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• RECENT FLOORING UPDATES
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• STORAGE BUILDING
• BOAT SHED
• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shelbyville ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #159 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.75%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,165
• Equity at exit: $19,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $23,840
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75973

• Home prices YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $275/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $256	+0% $227	+5% $199	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $146	-5% $187	+0% $227	+5% $268	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $253	base $227	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    price $100,000 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Situated on approximately 0.9 acres, this 1985 18x80 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a functional layout. The home features a wood-burning stove and recent flooring updates in the primary bedroom, kitchen, and living area. Enjoy both front and back porches, providing comfortable outdoor space. The property includes a 14x20 storage building with a 12x20 lean-to, along with a 14x20 boat shed. Conveniently located just 1/4 mile from the public boat ramp at East Hamilton on Toledo Bend, making it well suited for lake-area living.

18. 2026-01-13
    listed $113,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Situated on approximately 0.9 acres, this 1985 18x80 single-wide mobile home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms in a functional layout. The home features a wood-burning stove and recent flooring updates in the primary bedroom, kitchen, and living area. Enjoy both front and back porches, providing comfortable outdoor space. The property includes a 14x20 storage building with a 12x20 lean-to, along with a 14x20 boat shed. Conveniently located just 1/4 mile from the public boat ramp at East Hamilton on Toledo Bend, making it well suited for lake-area living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $275 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,555/yr (+$130/mo · 566.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$275
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$992
• − Management: −$992
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$272
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839960
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,783
• Composite: 43.68/100
• National rank: #2956
• State rank: #159 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shelbyville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,564

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,199 people
• By 2030: 24,986 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 24,646 · -2.2%
• By 2050: 24,144 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 22,328 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 18,734 · -25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Scottish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.5% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.3pp toward R · 2008: -44.3pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+58.6 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+44.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.07%
• Current HPI: 154.4854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $100,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $113,000 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $275 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.