17 Stone Cmns

Yaphank, NY 11980

$429,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,036 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax + insurance: −$494
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$846
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-743/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $120,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $429k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-743/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (6.1% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $403k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#781 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Middle Island School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 642 students, 46% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $429k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Yaphank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,027/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 503% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.