5 Hillside Rd

Middletown, NY 10973

$455,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$927
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-1,754/mo
• Annual: $-21,049/yr
• Cap rate: 1.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.52%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (61.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (56.6% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (61.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, schools D+.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.