513 S Robinson St

Earlington, KY 42410

$134,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1909 · SingleFamily · Pending · 204 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-380/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-380/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (28.4% below list).
• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#175 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Earlington Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 277 students, 69% FRL); South Hopkins Middle School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 365 students, 59% FRL); Hopkins County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 774 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $135k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.