513 S Robinson St · Earlington, KY 42410

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1909 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home on a spacious corner lot with plenty of off-street parking! Enjoy relaxing on the covered front porch or make use of the detached garage and separate workshop - perfect for hobbies or storage. Inside, you'll love the completely remodeled kitchen featuring brand-new stainless-steel appliances, updated cabinetry, and two convenient pantries. Fresh new flooring flows throughout the home and replacement windows bring in great natural light. The large walk-in closet provides excellent storage space, and there's even a cellar (outside entrance only). This move-in-ready home combines modern updates with functional extras and sits in a convenient location close to to

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Remodeled kitchen
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SEPARATE WORKSHOP
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Gravel parking areas
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Outbuilding; Corner lot; Tons of parking behind home (gravel and blacktop areas)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-380/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#175 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Earlington Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #100 of 676 statewide, top 16%, 277 students, 69% FRL); South Hopkins Middle School (math 23% / reading 37%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 365 students, 59% FRL); Hopkins County Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 774 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $135k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,556 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,488
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 S Robinson St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,104 (0%)	0mo	$120,000	$109	100
410 S Lee Trover Todd Jr Hwy	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,172 (+6%)	1mo	$13,000	$11	78
408 W Boyle Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,164 (+5%)	5mo	$80,000	$69	65
106 Oakwood Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (+10%)	11mo	$87,500	$72	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,129
• Equity at exit: $52,107

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $35,053
• Equity at exit: $74,198

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42410

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $369/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $129,313

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $7	+0% $-32	+5% $-70	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-70	+0% $-32	+5% $7	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $3	base $-32	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   price $134,900
3. 2026-04-07
   price $139,900
4. 2026-03-07
   price $145,000
5. 2026-01-12
   price $154,000
6. 2025-10-20
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2001-08-01
   soldstatus $37,900
8. 1997-08-01
   soldstatus $38,000
9. 1985-11-01
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $369 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,160 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$791/yr (+$66/mo · 214.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$369
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Earlington

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #8758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Earlington, KY
• City population: 1,113
• Population (ZIP): 1,113

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 24% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Current HPI: 87.8854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+610.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $134,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $139,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $145,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $154,000 MHCBOR
• 2025-10-20 Listed $165,000 MHCBOR
• 2001-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $369 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.