865 Moonlight Dr

North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$78,250B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$410
• Tax + insurance: −$524
• HOA: −$185
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-829/yr
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.58%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $21,910

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-829/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (15.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $542 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Diplomat Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 1,069 students, 56% FRL); Mariner Middle School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade C-, #274 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 1,001 students, 53% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 846 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $78k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.