616 Arabian Ln

Krugerville, TX 76227

$314,999D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$94
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-445/mo
• Annual: $-5,339/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.05%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-445 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.6% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $231k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Krugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.