616 Arabian Ln · Krugerville, TX 76227

$314,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 2025 7,928 sqft lot $166/sqft · 22% below area Est $405k · 22% under $94/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Highpointe Ranch - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sold by builder (special listing condition: Builder)
• Financial info: Financing options include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA loans
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee covers full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Legacy Southwest Property Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detector(s); Fire alarm
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete streets/curbs/sidewalks; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2025); Not attached to other properties; Located in Highpointe Ranch subdivision
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; New construction (2025)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Gutters; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Natural stone/granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Plumbed for gas in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; ENERGY STAR/ACCA RSI qualified installation
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Vented exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.2% in Krugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#672 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jackie Fuller El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 735 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $231,885 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,679
• List price: $314,999
• Delta: -22.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
849 Sherry Ln S	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,976 (+4%)	4mo	$470,000	$238	74
1304 Squires Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,905 (+0%)	10mo	$439,999	$231	68
820 Sherry Ln S	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (+3%)	7mo	$375,000	$191	67
717 Fairmeadow Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,106 (+11%)	15mo	$445,000	$211	60
11 Woodhaven Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,738 (-9%)	4mo	$325,000	$187	59
837 Sherry Ln S	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,017 (+6%)	19mo	$399,467	$198	58
121 Kruger Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,934 (+2%)	21mo	$379,900	$196	53
113 Bent Oak Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,090 (+10%)	3mo	$649,999	$311	51
836 Sherry Ln S	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,106 (+11%)	17mo	$464,999	$221	50
311 Kruger Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (+0%)	21mo	$329,900	$173	47
101 Faircrest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (-15%)	21mo	$313,000	$193	45
312 Perkins Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-13%)	2mo	$325,000	$197	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-85,706
• Equity at exit: $46,967

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-136,520
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,875

Max offer price $251,476

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-330	+0% $-439	+5% $-548	+10% $-657
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-531	+0% $-439	+5% $-347	+10% $-256
Rate	-1.0pp $-280	-0.5pp $-359	base $-439	+0.5pp $-521	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Pecos St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,300	$1.13	44d	1	0.94mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	17d	1	0.97mi
538 Concho St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1613	$2,285	$1.42	8d	1	0.97mi
9108 Stewart St Cross Roads, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,900	$1.39	13d	1	1.02mi
1000 Mason St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$2,200	$1.43	44d	1	1.04mi
685 Coleman St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1869	$2,400	$1.28	8d	1	1.04mi
502 Brumley Rd Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,895	$1.29	44d	1	1.05mi
1000 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,595	$1.22	44d	1	1.15mi
225 Glenview Dr Unit Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,350	$1.16	3d	1	1.16mi
229 Irick Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	1346	$2,000	$1.49	4d	1	1.21mi
933 King St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,100	$1.45	44d	1	1.21mi
901 King St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	1761	$2,625	$1.49	3d	1	1.26mi
717 Presidio St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	19d	1	1.27mi
10201 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2520	$2,500	$0.99	25d	1	1.27mi
10101 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$2,500	$0.98	44d	1	1.29mi
8869 Liberty Rd Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,750	$1.32	44d	1	1.41mi
9808 High Banker Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,998	$1.56	21d	1	1.41mi
601 Countryside Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	5d	1	1.48mi
10108 Autumn Leaves Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$2,450	$1.21	22d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $376,999 Active 453-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   price $314,999 407-char remark
3. 2026-04-22
   price $319,999 407-char remark
4. 2026-04-19
   price $322,999 407-char remark
5. 2026-04-17
   listed $382,999 Active 407-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Krugerville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #672
• US rank: #12629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 55,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $314,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $376,999 NTREIS