451 NW Hill Rd

McMinnville, OR 97128

$420,000C-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,275 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$552
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $832/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($832/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (14.9% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $357k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#79 in OR, #3,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: commute D+.
• Mcminnville SD 40 (town): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #20 of 183 in OR (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newby Elementary School (445 students, 70% FRL); Duniway Middle School (806 students, 66% FRL); Mcminnville High School (2,319 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 395 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $325k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in McMinnville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,574/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1508% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.